1 October 2016

Climate science

For an overview of the climate science, see the David Spratt’s Powerpoint presentation, Why is emergency-scale action necessary?

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Global temperatures and baselinesNASA’s temperature spike graph

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The raw data for this graph is found at: www.data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.txt


Different graphs – different baselines
The graph above uses the average temperatures of the period from 1880 to 1909 as its 0°C baseline.
Other graphs showing this data from NASA use the average of 1950-1980 temperatures as the baseline.

In February 2016, the global temperatures spiked to 1.6°C over the 1880-1909 baseline.
This is the same as 1.35°C over the 1950-1980 baseline.

Since the period 1880-1909 was roughly 0.2°C warmer than the mid-17th century pre-industrial average temperature, the February 2016 global average temperatures was actually 1.8°C above the real pre-industrial temperature.

You will see various temperature rises mentioned in material from IPCC and in other climate science documents and media articles. Unfortunately none of them use a consistent baseline. The temperature rise figures cited vary depending on which baseline is being assumed.



The figures below were provided by David Spratt on 13/9/16.

RECORD HOT AUGUST, AND YEAR TO DATE

NASA today released its temperature data for August 2016.

It was 0.98C warmer than the mid-20th century average.

This makes August 1.23C warmer than the 1880-1909 baseline (when observational records commence).

It is also the hottest August on record.

NASA says: “August 2016 was the warmest August in 136 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.”

In addition:

“The record warm August continued a streak of 11 consecutive months dating back to October 2015 that have set new monthly high-temperature records.”

Based on the 1880-1909 baseline, recent figures are:

2013-2015 average of 3 years: 1.01C

2015 year: 1.12C

Jan-March 2016 (El Nino peak): 1.51C

February 2016 (hottest month on record): 1.6C

Average for Jan-August 2016: 1.31C

First eight months of this year:
J 1.39C
F 1.6C
M 1.53C
A 1.36C
M 1.18C
J 1.05C
J 1.10C
A 1.23C

Note: for full pre-industrial figure (from mid-18th century), add 0.2C to all the above figures.